The need for Electoral Reform. A Projection on the Distribution of 2025 MP Mandates based on the May 2023 votes shows defects in representation

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Dear Ladies,

Dear Gentlemen,

AIS, the organization promoting Open Data Albania, has just published a Projection of how mandates for MPs would be distributed in the 2025 parliamentary elections, if the electoral subjects would run with the Current Electoral Code applied, and secure as many votes as in the May 14 Elections (votes for the representation of the Subjects in the Municipal Councils).

This projection brings evidence of the distortions of the Electoral Will and non-compliance with the Principle of Representation.

The Current System (Regional Competition) creates Non-Representation even at the expense of small or new parties. The Projection based on the results of May 2023, includes 282,850 Votes of these Parties that are not translated into Mandate, that is, they do not produce any MP mandates at all. This number of votes of the Parties that cannot reach the Parliament, is as much as 21% of the voters in the latest process.

The Current Code, with the results of May 14 and with the same subjects participating in the Election (40 parties), would give the Main Party with 84 Mandates, 10 more than in the 2021 Elections (with 12 electoral subjects running).

The paradox is that this Party would manage to get 3/5ths of the Parliamentiary seats, although in the electoral process it received 188,558 less votes (in 2021, 768,134 votes, while in the May 14 election process, this electoral subject managed to receive 579 576 votes or minus 24.5%) for the municipality councils.

As it is clearly seen from this Projection, the ratio between Votes per Subject and MP Mandates is applied as an Indirect Ratio in the case of the Main Party: Less Voters and More MP Mandates.

See the published report and evidence LINK Projection of Mandate distribution for MPs in the 2025 elections based on data results for Subjects of the May 14 Electoral Process – Open Data Albania (ndiqparate.al)

If the latest elections of May 14th were parliamentary elections, and if the same formula and legal provision of Article 162 of the Electoral Code (in force) were applied for allocating the parliamentary seats, the allocation would be as follows: Socialist Party 84; Together We Win 34; The Official Democratic Party only 11; The Social Democratic Party led by Tom Doshi 9 mandates; The Agrarian Environmentalist Party led by Agron Duka 2 mandates.

What if a National Competition System was applied. If we compare the same vote result as translated into Mandates for Subjects if the country would apply a National Electoral system where Specifically:

–       If the SP would receive 579,576 votes, but the country would have a National, and not a Regional  Competition system, the SP would receive only 67 MPs. So less than 50% of the number of MPs in the Assembly.

Based on the above, AIS / Open Data Albania expresses its concern that this System does not guarantee Fair Representation and respect for the Vote, discriminating also against New Alternatives.

We emphasize the need for Electoral Reform where the Parliament commits to a Fairer Electoral System, where the will of the voters is also guaranteed.

The Analysis and the Report are part of the publications in the Open Data Albania Database.

We remain open to questions and committed to deepen our evidence-based analysis.